Uncertainty, Climate Change, and The Global Economy
Here is a paper that attempts to highlight potential outcomes of climate change and the global economy. The conclusion is simple, we can’t afford the potential downside even if climate change has a small chance of causing problems.
Article Introduction (Via Voxeu.org & Economist View)
What will the climate be like in a hundred years’ time? The answer depends on both how human activity affects climate change and how a warming climate alters the economy’s productive capacity and human welfare. There is uncertainty about those links, but this column shows that, absent policy action, global warming will be a major problem even under very optimistic circumstances.
Article Excerpts (Via Voxeu.org & Economist View)
“Clearly, how the climate evolves depends crucially on the policy measures that states can agree upon to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Our paper, however, abstracts from mitigation and concentrates on evaluating various sources of uncertainty about future climate in a business-as-usual setting – i.e., in the absence of any further policies to stop climate change.”
“These futures indicate that alternative socioeconomic developments contribute a great deal to the uncertainty about future global warming”
“The upshot of our analysis is simple – without swift policy action, global warming will be a major problem even under very optimistic circumstances.”