Planning for the future: Key insights into scenario planning

Required reading for everyone!!!!

Excerpt (via Professor Paul Johnson @ Cap at Columbia)

First Principles
• The future is unknown no one can predict its turbulent and chaotic course
• The shape of the future is inherently uncertain and complex no amount of historical modeling can be used to predict it accurately
• In the future most things will be different than today the only certainty about the future is change

The Human Condition
• The only way to survive this change is to adapt to it
• The human mind does not like change and we are all blind to incremental change
• Humans will go into denial rather than accept the signs of change
• Without adaptation, we will not survive the inevitable surprises in store for us

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About Miguel Barbosa

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19. April 2010 by Miguel Barbosa
Categories: Curated Readings, Risk & Uncertainty | Leave a comment

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