New Decision Making Book –Dance With Chance “Making Luck Work For You”
This book looks promising….I’ll have to add it to the “to read” pile.
(H/T To Decision Science News Blog)
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Book Introduction (Via Dance With Chance.Com)
In a nutshell, Dance with Chance is all about knowing what you can and cannot predict and, therefore, what you can and cannot control. Think about it. Every day human beings make decisions. Some are important: should you invest your life savings in the stock market? Others are trivial: should you take an umbrella today? But in both these cases you have no control. The stock market will go up or down, it will rain or it won’t… and there’s nothing you can do about it. The problem comes when people seek to gain control by making predictions. By consulting an investment expert or a weather forecast, they think they can control the value of their investments or avoid getting wet. But this is just an illusion. An illusion that psychologists call ‘the illusion of control’.
“Dance With Chance” Table Of Contents (Via Decision Science News)
Preface
The illusion of control from Chapter 1: Three Wishes from a Genie
Some national puzzles from Chapter 2: The Ills of Pills
Mind over medicine from Chapter 3: Getting the Right Medicine
The power of luck from Chapter 5: Watering Your Money Plant
Mediocrity and failure from Chapter 6: Lessons from Gurus
The creative destruction of copper from Chapter 7: Creative Destruction
Take a chance on me from Chapter 8: Does God Play Dice?
The statistician who ate humble pie from Chapter 9: Past or Future
A black Monday and a black swan from Chapter 10: Of Subways and Coconuts – Two Types of Uncertainty
Blinking marvelous from Chapter 11: Genius or Fallible?
Predicting marital happiness from Chapter 12: The Inevitability of Decisions
Increasing the sum of human happiness from Chapter 13: Happiness, Happiness, Happiness
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