Why Gamblers Think They Can Pick Winners

Abstract (Via Jogs)

Many gamblers believe that it is possible to find a strategy to beat the lottery including selecting numbers that are due to come up or looking for a bias in past numbers. In this paper, we examine sales figures and variations in the number of winners for the various prize levels of a popular Canadian lottery to detect lottery ticket preferences. It was determined that the lottery outcomes conformed well to a random outcome. No evidence of either a bias myth or due to come up myth was found. However ticket popularity indicated a marked preference for the number 7 and low numbers, and the avoidance of high numbers and adjacent numbers. In addition we found a linear and a quadratic relationship between past frequency of the numbers and ticket popularity indicating a belief in both the due to come up and the bias myths. The findings suggest strong non-random preferences in the selection of lottery numbers

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08. February 2010 by Miguel Barbosa
Categories: Behavioral Economics, Curated Readings | Leave a comment

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