Category Archives for Risk & Uncertainty

Tempo: timing, tactics and strategy in narrative-driven decision-making

For years I have been an avid reader of Venkatesh Rao’s blog Ribbon Farm.  In 2011 Venkatesh released a  book called, Tempo: timing, tactics and strategy in narrative-driven decision-making. I consider this book to rank with Nassim Taleb’s books as required … Continue reading

13. March 2014 by Miguel Barbosa
Categories: Curated Readings, Psychology & Sociology, Risk & Uncertainty, Wisdom Seeking | Leave a comment

The Narrative Bias: The More Who Die the Less We Care: Confronting Apathy Toward Mass Atrocities

Via Institute of Hazard Risk & Resiliance Paul describes how people fail to act when confronted with mass murder and genocide and often focus on individuals rather than large groups of people when providing aid or other forms of support.  … Continue reading

08. July 2011 by Miguel Barbosa
Categories: Curated Readings, Risk & Uncertainty | Leave a comment

Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming

Excerpt (via Watkins & Bazerman) “Predictable surprises arise out of the failures of recognition, prioritization, or mobilization. The best way to figure out whether a disaster could have been avoided is to ask: 1, Did the leader recognize the threat?, … Continue reading

29. June 2011 by Miguel Barbosa
Categories: Curated Readings, Risk & Uncertainty | Leave a comment

Predicting the improbable

Excerpt (Via Voxeu) Japan’s trio of tsunami, earthquake, and nuclear disaster has left the world stunned. As this column points out, even the experts were shocked. But while these events were highly unlikely, they were still possible. This column uses … Continue reading

24. April 2011 by Miguel Barbosa
Categories: Curated Readings, Risk & Uncertainty | Leave a comment

Self-protection against repeated low probability risks

Abstract (via Aric P Shafran) This paper reports the results of experiments designed to test the effect of experience on preferences for self-protection against low and high probability losses. Subjects gained experience by repeatedly making choices about whether or not … Continue reading

19. April 2011 by Miguel Barbosa
Categories: Curated Readings, Risk & Uncertainty | Leave a comment

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