Can rational people believe in miracles?
I picked this article because it provides a good overview of Bayes Theorem, a useful tool for any serious investor. (Click here to skip intro and read about Miracles and Bayes Theorem)
Article Introduction (Via MindYourDecisions)
Rationality and miracles are seemingly in conflict. Rationality is about reason and natural explanations. Miracles are about emotion and supernatural forces. Can the two be reconciled? My friend sent me a fascinating explanation from The Language of God, a book by Francis Collins, a leader of the Human Genome Project. Collins suggests that rational people can believe in miracles, and he provides an interesting example.
“If one accepts the supernatural can exist, then it is logically consistent to be rational and believe in miracles. However, if the supernatural is given a low prior probability, then Bayes Theorem implies that miracles will be rare.”
Click here to read the full article on Miracles and Bayes Theorem
April 23rd, 2010 at 5:04 pm
A professor from my undergraduate philosophy years once asserted that to believe in a miracle rationally, one must demonstrate that the miracle explanation is more likely than any other explanation. One must first demonstrate that all other possible explanations (with finite possibilities) could not — under any circumstances — account for the facts. Since there is always an unknowable number of possible influencing factors with unknowable probabilities and degrees of influence, this is an impossible task. And hence, he asserted, there is never any rational reason to believe in miracles. I found it compelling.