Can rational people believe in miracles?
I picked this article because it provides a good overview of Bayes Theorem, a useful tool for any serious investor.
Article Introduction (Via MindYourDecisions)
Rationality and miracles are seemingly in conflict. Rationality is about reason and natural explanations. Miracles are about emotion and supernatural forces. Can the two be reconciled? My friend sent me a fascinating explanation from The Language of God, a book by Francis Collins, a leader of the Human Genome Project. Collins suggests that rational people can believe in miracles, and he provides an interesting example.
“If one accepts the supernatural can exist, then it is logically consistent to be rational and believe in miracles. However, if the supernatural is given a low prior probability, then Bayes Theorem implies that miracles will be rare.”